

Hi All!
I'm new in neural network, and it's my first time in this forum. I'm interested in modelling my first neural network for time series forecasting.
I for example, in my first try I'm using a time serie of temperature, I have 650 matrix for train my neural network.
I want use a moving average for forecasting the next term. I know that I can use other values for forecast that like humity, preassure, etc... But it's only for trying the theory, I don't want that will be a good method for forecasting.
I have the values in array called "temperature" and "targets" the value for forecast. All the values are in Kelvin
I want design a neural network 881, input layer with 8 neurons, a hide layer with 8 neurons and a output layer with only 1 neuron.
I try this with 8 values in "temperature" matrix with 8x650:(x, x1, x2, x3, x4... x8) And I have "target" matrix 1x650:(x+1)
I type:
net = newff([0 400; 0 400; 0 400; 0 400; 0 400; 0 400; 0 400; 0 400], [8 1], {'purelin','purelin'},'traingd')
net.trainParam.goal = 0.01
net.trainParam.epochs = 1000
net = train( net, temperature, target)
but my problem is: my MSE is around 2000 when will be , and I don't met the goal...
I tryed with RMSE, and changing the goal, logsig, etc... but I don't have any success, Any suggestions?
I think is a problem with modelling, Can someone help me? What is wrong?
Thank you very much! 